Kenneth Reeds
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Cuba (again)

1/11/2021

 
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​If a government’s policy is to be measured against progress towards its stated goals, then the US’s posture towards Cuba is a failure. Since 1959 our government has tried to force changes in the Cuban government and once Trump is out of office that same Cuban government will have outlasted twelve US presidential administrations.  
 
The news out of Washington is that the US is newly putting Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Reuters mentions that the motive for this is “Cuba’s long-time harboring of US fugitives as well as Colombian rebel leaders”. There is a lot that could be said about both points. However, the list is meant to punish countries that sponsor terrorism, so it seems worthwhile to specifically provide some background to the Colombian portion.
 
For several years, Cuba has served as a site for peace talks between the Colombian government and the various rebel groups that operate in Colombia. One success was back in 2016 when the FARC demobilized after four years of negotiations where Cuba sometimes hosted the dialog and often served as an active participant. In 2018 the ELN and the Colombian government sought to echo that success by once again holding peace talks in Cuba. However, after the ELN claimed responsibility for a January 2019 car bombing that killed 21 people, the Colombian government ended the talks and issued warrants for the peace delegation that was in Cuba.
 
While simultaneously condemning the bombing, Cuba refused the extradition request from Colombia. The Cuban government justified this refusal by stating that to extradite the ELN peace negotiators would mean breaching the protocols of their role as the host for the peace negotiations. Or, in the words of Cuba’s Granma newspaper: 

​“El Gobierno cubano respeta la decisión de Colombia de dar por terminada la negociación. No obstante, reitera que, como parte de estas fue firmado un Protocolo para casos de ruptura, que recoge las condiciones en que debía producirse el regreso si se diera por terminado el proceso y reitera que actuará con estricto respeto a los Protocolos de Diálogo de Paz.”
That same peace delegation from the ELN remains in Cuba. Today it appears that the Trump administration intends to use their presence in the country as a pretext to newly categorize Cuba as a sponsor of terrorism.
 
Interestingly, at the time of the bombing the ELN delegation in Cuba claimed that it knew nothing about the attack. Specifically, Pablo Beltrán stated that the terms of the negotiations stipulated that their delegation could have nothing to do with violence while in Cuba and that they had kept this promise: 
"En eso fue muy preciso el gobierno cubano desde el primer día, y nosotros hemos tratado de cumplir ese requerimiento. Ni nos involucramos, ni conocíamos de esa situación del ataque."
While it is certainly possible that Beltrán is lying, it is also possible that there was a schism in the ELN. The attack could easily have served a two-part goal of mining the peace negotiations and stranding the negotiators in Cuba. This would provide an opportunity for another ELN faction in Colombia not only to take control of the organization, but also its lucrative relationship to drug trafficking.
 
Whatever really happened with the ELN, the presence of the Colombians appears to be the partial pretext of Trump’s change in posture towards Cuba. While Obama’s changes in policy towards Cuba were controversial, they were something new and seemed to be provoking modifications in Cuba as well. The Trump administration reverted to pre-Obama policies and with this new proclamation pushes the relationship between the US and Cuba even further back into the postures that failed so absolutely throughout the second half of the twentieth century.
 
Stated cynically, one must wonder if the US’s true goal with Cuba is less to promote a new government, but more to foment division in the US. This seems to be true in the tensely contested state of Florida where decades of anti-Castro activism have produced few changes in the Cuban government, but considerable political fundraising and Republican control. 

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